↗Compare several measures together; PE and CAPE can diverge when the earnings cycle is unusual.
↗Read valuation against rates and inflation. The same multiple can imply a different risk premium in a different rate regime.

Do not over-read

!Expensive markets can remain expensive for years, and cheap markets can get cheaper.
!Index composition and accounting earnings change over time, so very long historical comparisons are approximate.

S&P 500 PE2026-07-27

28.5↓ 0.18

S&P 500 price divided by trailing reported earnings.

How to read it+

Rising: Investors are paying more per dollar of trailing earnings.
Falling: The multiple is compressing or earnings are rising faster than price.
Caveat: Cyclical earnings collapses can make PE look extreme exactly when prices have already fallen.

Shiller PE (CAPE)2026-07-27

40.5↓ 0.26

Price divided by ten years of inflation-adjusted average earnings.

How to read it+

Rising: Long-cycle valuation is becoming richer.
Falling: Long-cycle valuation is becoming cheaper.
Caveat: CAPE is slow and composition-sensitive; it is more useful for long-horizon expectations than timing.

Earnings Yield2026-07-27

3.51%↑ 0.03

Trailing S&P 500 earnings divided by price—the inverse of PE.

How to read it+

Rising: Current earnings are larger relative to the index price.
Falling: Investors accept less current earnings for each dollar invested.
Caveat: Compare it cautiously with bond yields: equity earnings are uncertain and can grow or shrink.

Loading…

Live board preview

US macro regime

Open the full board ↗

Fed Funds Rate2026-07-24

3.63%

The weighted overnight rate banks pay to borrow reserve balances from one another.

How to read it+

Rising: Policy and overnight funding conditions are tightening.
Falling: Policy and overnight funding conditions are easing.
Caveat: It follows the Fed target range closely; it is not a market forecast of future policy.

2Y Treasury2026-07-24

4.33%↓ 0.04

The market yield on a constant-maturity 2-year US Treasury.

How to read it+

Rising: Markets are pricing tighter policy, more inflation risk, or a larger term premium.
Falling: Markets are pricing easier policy, weaker growth, or safer demand.
Caveat: Several forces move yields at once; no single narrative is identifiable from the level alone.

10Y Treasury2026-07-24

4.69%↓ 0.02

The market yield on a constant-maturity 10-year US Treasury.

How to read it+

Rising: Long-run rate, inflation or term-premium expectations are moving higher.
Falling: Long-run expectations are cooling or demand for duration is strengthening.
Caveat: This is a modelled constant-maturity yield, not the yield of one permanently fixed bond.

10Y–2Y Spread2026-07-27

0.34%↓ 0.02

The 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield.

How to read it+

Rising: The curve is steepening; the reason may be better growth or easier expected policy.
Falling: The curve is flattening; below zero is an inversion.
Caveat: An inversion is a cycle warning, not a countdown clock for recession or market declines.

Unemployment Rate2026-06-01

4.20%↓ 0.10

The share of the US labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.

How to read it+

Rising: Labor demand is weakening relative to labor supply.
Falling: The labor market is tightening.
Caveat: The rate can change because participation changes, not only because jobs are gained or lost.

CPI YoY2026-06-01

3.73%↓ 0.54

The 12-month percentage change in the US consumer price index.

How to read it+

Rising: Consumer inflation is accelerating year over year.
Falling: Inflation is cooling, which is not the same as prices falling.
Caveat: Base effects and category weights can move the headline independently of current monthly momentum.

Initial Jobless Claims2026-07-18

187.0K↓ 22.0K

New unemployment-insurance claims filed during the latest week.

How to read it+

Rising: Layoffs may be increasing; persistent moves matter more than one week.
Falling: Near-term layoff pressure may be easing.
Caveat: Weekly data are noisy and affected by holidays, strikes and seasonal adjustment.

WTI Crude2026-07-20

$84.38↑ 0.95

The spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil.

How to read it+

Rising: Energy demand, supply risk, or risk premia are increasing.
Falling: Demand expectations or supply pressure are weakening.
Caveat: Oil is globally traded but WTI has its own location, inventory and futures-market effects.

Loading…